As economic diversification accelerates across the Gulf, businesses face a more interconnected landscape of geopolitical, supply chain and credit risks
The rapid transformation of GCC economies is creating unprecedented opportunities for businesses to expand across international markets. However, according to AU Group MEA, the same forces driving growth and diversification are also exposing companies to a new generation of trade risks that are increasingly interconnected and global in nature.
Findings from AU Group’s Credit Insurance Market 2026 study show that businesses are operating in an environment shaped by the return of trade protectionism, rising corporate insolvencies, ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent supply chain disruption. Together, these factors are reshaping how companies assess and manage risk across international trade relationships.
The study notes that global business insolvencies increased by 6% in 2025 and are expected to rise by a further 4% in 2026. At the same time, new tariff measures, higher logistics costs and geopolitical tensions are creating greater uncertainty for companies engaged in cross-border trade.
Traditionally viewed as separate challenges, these risks are becoming increasingly interdependent. A geopolitical event can disrupt supply chains, increase transportation costs, affect payment performance and ultimately impact the creditworthiness of businesses operating thousands of kilometres away. According to the report, geopolitical developments are now having a direct influence on customer risk through rising energy, freight and raw material costs.
Aurélien Paradis, CEO of AU Group MEA, said:
“The GCC has become one of the world’s most important trade and investment corridors, linking Asia, Europe and Africa. As economic diversification accelerates across the region, companies are engaging with new markets, suppliers and customers at an unprecedented scale. Success in this environment will depend not only on identifying opportunities but also on understanding the evolving trade risks that accompany them.”
The findings are particularly relevant as Gulf economies continue to strengthen their positions as global hubs for trade, logistics, manufacturing, energy transition and investment. As companies expand beyond traditional markets and integrate into increasingly complex international supply chains, they face greater exposure to external economic and geopolitical developments.
The report highlights the Middle East’s strategic importance to global commerce, noting that despite heightened regional tensions and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, credit insurers have largely maintained their support for businesses and have not significantly reduced capacity across the region. This reflects confidence in the long-term resilience and importance of Gulf trade corridors.
According to AU Group MEA, the changing global environment requires businesses to move beyond traditional approaches to risk management and develop a more comprehensive understanding of how trade, credit, supply chains, financing and geopolitics interact.
As global trade routes evolve and new economic partnerships emerge, companies that successfully balance growth ambitions with greater visibility over their counterparties, supply chains and international exposures will be best positioned to thrive in the next phase of economic diversification.
Key Findings from the Credit Insurance Market 2026 Study
- Global business insolvencies rose by 6% in 2025, with a further 4% increase expected in 2026.
- The return of trade protectionism has contributed to supply chain disruption, higher logistics costs and greater uncertainty around pricing and margins.
- Geopolitical tensions are increasingly affecting customer creditworthiness through higher energy, freight and raw material costs.
- Credit insurers increased overall risk exposure by approximately 3%, demonstrating continued support for international trade despite heightened uncertainty.
- The Middle East market has remained resilient, with insurers largely maintaining capacity while monitoring developments across the region.
